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KBB: October New-Car Sales Expected to Jump 11.7 Percent

October 24, 2013

IRVINE, Calif. — New-vehicle sales are expected to improve 11.7 percent in October to a total of 1.22 million units, according to data from Kelley Blue Book.

The company predicts that following the first year-over-year decline in 27 months in September, new-car sales should begin to bounce back in October. This October has one more selling day than last year, and in 2012, numbers were heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy’s impact on the East Coast. Barring another economic setback, industry sales remain on track to reach about 15.6 million units in 2013. 

In October, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1.22 million units, up 11.7 percent from last year and up 7.4 percent from September 2013, KBB predicts. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2013 is estimated to be 15.4 million, up from 14.3 million in October 2012 and up from 15.2 million in September 2013. Retail sales are expected to account for 84 percent of sales in October 2013.

Toyota is poised to post the greatest sales growth from last year at 15.9 percent. Ford also is expected to report excellent sales results this month, driven largely by the demand for their F-Series as well as the recently redesigned Fusion and Escape. Chrysler, Honda and Nissan also are expected to post double-digit gains, largely on the heels of new redesigns and introductions such as the Jeep Cherokee, Honda Accord and Nissan Altima.

“The government shutdown didn’t impact consumers growing appetite for buying new vehicles,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “The expectations were that car buyers would wait on the sidelines, but because of pent-up demand and credit availability, car sales are expected to increase 7 percent from last month.”

Continuing its trend, sales of compact crossovers will have the biggest improvement in October, with an expected gain of more than 25 percent. 

Although General Motors has its new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra on the market, the impact of a recent $1,500 manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) increase on these trucks remains to be seen. Although the growth in the pickup truck sales appears to be slowing on the surface, sales were already beginning to heat up in the fourth quarter of 2012, so year-over-year comparisons will naturally subside as time goes on.

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Oct-13

Oct-12

YOY %

Oct-13

Oct-12

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

212,000

195,764

8.3%

17.4%

17.9%

-0.5%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

191,000

167,947

13.7%

15.7%

15.4%

0.3%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

180,000

155,242

15.9%

14.8%

14.2%

0.5%

Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, RAM)

142,000

126,185

12.5%

11.6%

11.6%

0.1%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

120,000

106,973

12.2%

9.8%

9.8%

0.0%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

90,000

79,685

12.9%

7.4%

7.3%

0.1%

Hyundai-Kia

95,000

92,723

2.5%

7.8%

8.5%

-0.7%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen)

48,000

46,019

4.3%

3.9%

4.2%

-0.3%

Total 3

1,220,000

1,092,294

11.7%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

           

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

           

3 Includes brands not shown

           

 

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Oct-13

Oct-12

YOY %

Oct-13

Oct-12

YOY %

Mid-Size Car

189,000

171,085

10.5%

15.5%

15.7%

-0.2%

Compact Car

178,000

157,214

13.2%

14.6%

14.4%

0.2%

Compact Crossover

150,000

118,603

26.5%

12.3%

10.9%

1.4%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

166,000

147,199

12.8%

13.6%

13.5%

0.1%

Subcompact Car

54,000

47,107

14.6%

4.4%

4.3%

0.1%

Total 2

1,220,000

1,092,294

11.7%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

           

2 Includes segments not shown

           

 

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